Compared to January, companies raised their cautious economic activity outlook in February, though sentiment weakened slightly on a year-on-year basis. This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from a forced break in March–May 2022.
In February 2026, the BAEI was 45.9, compared to 41.3 in January 2026 and 46.9 in February 2025.
Uncertainty regarding the duration of hostilities, large-scale destruction of energy and infrastructure facilities, and the high costs of recovery and back-up power supplies – coupled with higher electricity prices for businesses, a shortage of skilled labor, and seasonal factors – weighed on economic activity and business sentiment. Furthermore, the challenging situation in the energy sector led to a decline in the outlook compared to February 2025.
On the other hand, several factors provided positive momentum for development: sustained consumer demand, stable inflows of international aid, and slowing inflation.
Despite the challenging business environment, companies across all sectors surveyed reported an improvement in their current performance.
Although improving, industrial companies’ expectations for their current economic performance still remained guarded, due to power outages, a shortage of qualified staff and rising production costs, the sectoral index being 46.9 in February, compared to 41.7 in January and 50.2 in February 2025. Respondents reported significantly weaker expectations of a decrease in the amount of manufactured goods, the number of new orders for products, including export orders, and in the amount of unfinished products. Expectations regarding a reduction in raw material and supply stocks also moderated. Meanwhile, respondents were slightly more downbeat about their finished goods stocks.
As they were preparing for the upcoming season, construction companies saw a marked uptick in their business activity expectations. Nevertheless, sentiment remained cautious on the back of adverse weather conditions and power outages. The sectoral index climbed to 46.6 in February, up from 37.9 in January and 44.7 in February 2025. Construction companies softened noticeably their still guarded expectations about construction volumes. Conversely, respondents reported dimmer expectations for the availability of contractors. In contrast to the three previous months, respondents said they expected an increase in the number of new orders. Respondents said they intended to purchase more raw materials and supplies, as well as contractor services, despite expectations of higher costs for these services.
Trading companies reported the most restrained expectations among all of the surveyed sectors, despite some easing of pessimism. High expenditures for backup power supplies and fewer calendar days in the month weighed on their activity, the sectoral index being 45.0 in February, compared to 40.0 in January and 49.2 in February 2025.Respondents expected a decrease in trade turnover and in the amount of goods purchased for sale, albeit less confidently. In contrast to the previous month, companies were upbeat about their stocks of goods for sale. Respondents continued to report intentions to cut their trade margins.
Services companies maintained a cautious outlook on their current business activity, though some of the earlier pessimism eased. Sentiment remained tempered by logistical hurdles and rising business costs for labor, heating, and electricity during the winter period. The sectoral index rose to 45.4 in February, compared to 42.1 January and 42.2 in February 2025. Respondents expected a slower decline in the amount of services provided, the number of new orders for services, and in the amount of services that are being provided.
Respondents across all sectors reported intentions to raise their selling prices further on the back of faster growth in purchase prices.
Labor market conditions were mixed. Only construction companies reported intentions to expand their workforces, while companies in other sectors said they intended to lay off staff, with the strongest intentions expressed by industrial companies.
This survey was carried out from 3 February through 20 February 2026. A total of 598 companies were polled. Of the companies polled, 43.3% are industrial companies, 25.6% services companies, 25.3% trading companies, and 5.9% construction companies; 30.9% of the respondents are large companies, 29.3% medium companies, and 39.8% small companies.
Of the surveyed companies, 33.9% are both exporters and importers, 8.9% are exporters only, 18.4% are importers only, and 38.8% are neither exporters nor importers.
The findings presented reflect only the opinions of the respondents (top managers of companies), and should not be considered as NBU assessments.
The monthly business activity expectations index (BAEI) is a tool for conducting latest assessments and detecting trends in economic development. It is calculated on the basis of surveys of Ukrainian real sector companies regarding changes in their performance compared to the previous month.
Monthly business activity expectations indices are calculated on the basis of respondents’ replies. These indices are as follows: sectoral indices (for each sector of the economy) and a composite index (describes the country’s economic performance over a month). A value of 50 corresponds to the neutral level. Index values above the neutral level indicate positive expectations.
Read more about the February 2026 survey in the Monthly Surveys of Companies Subsection of the Publications Section on the NBU’s official website.
The NBU posts monthly survey results in the open data format.
The results of the next survey (for March 2026) will be published on the first business day of April 2026.